Front And Center

The whole world is watching this one. I just flipped to a Swiss webpage a few moments ago to do my usual jaunt through the foreign news and found a large special section on the front page devoted to our election here in the States. The BBC is talking about it too but that outlet is never really different enough for me. I have this unfounded and sneaking suspicion that they are on the same page as the New York Times and therefore not really Foreign. Not that there is anything wrong with the Times. I love "The Gray Lady" even though she has gone for the dye job. But sometimes you just need to get some perspective. Step outside the echo chamber. Get a feel for what countries apart from the Magna Carta Crew are thinking and saying.
I digress.
The whole world is watching, awaiting the outcome. What will it all mean to them anyway? Will a Kerry win be a boon for internationalism? That is, will Kerry be able to bring the world community together in ways that Bush would or could not? Or will Kerry be forced into a Bush doctrine, hard line stance against terrorist-supporting states once he is in the Oval Office and realizes fully the situation (none of us on this end of things really know what THAT is anyhow)? On the other hand, might a Bush win guarantee Four More Years of the same pre-emptive, unilateralist strategy or will he come back from the extremes according to necessity and opportunity a la Reagan? There is alot of uncertainty and I wonder what the world community really wants. Indeed, what are they wishing for out of our election, wishing for out of us?
Then there is The Most Recent Tape. I am a little frightened that the op-ed guy that I found most compelling today on that so-called October Surprise is one William Safire of the NYT. I was reading bits and pieces of the translation (more on that in a bit) of UBL's most recent missive the other day. Immediately after, I began reflecting on the curious, even-handed and cautionary tone of the thing and I thought, "what gives?". Where is the hate-filled jihadist rhetoric? UBL is not supposed to sound like some guy running for Congress. He seemed to be presenting a case and looking for ways to explain himself to his audience. Safire is really the only one that has spoken to this conciliatory feel of UBL's message in the mainstream media. He points out that the side with the upper hand does not usually look for a plea bargain. So what is bin Laden's aim here? Why the hell would Public Enemy number One, apparently alive and well despite international efforts to exterminate him, come off as anything less than insolent?
Safire suggests that this is the first sign of a weakening of UBL's movement, essentially stating that Bush's approach is working. I'm not so sure about that. I'm not at all convinced that this tape is not some sort of tactical maneuver or even a head's up required by Islamic law regarding the next attempted attack here in the States, as Daniel Benjamin explains in Slate.com today. He goes on to suggest that the effect of the tape may very well be to help ensure Bush's re-election by "taunting him" and thereby "pumping up his support" here at home. This is consistent with Safire's interpretation of the tape as being evidence of Bush's success in prosecuting the war on terror. What is not clear is whether UBL really is weakened because of Bush's actions or merely playing possum to help get Bush four more years of jihad-inspiring American military action against Islam. bin Laden is very clever and that is something that cannot be repeated often enough. In part of his message, translated several different ways, UBL seems to say that if you live in a Blue state you're safe and if you live in a Red state you are complicit with Bush's world view and subject to attack. The exact meaning of this statement is most surely lost in translation. And the several attacks on the epicenter of Blue America, New York City, makes this statement about as fraudulent as a three dollar bill. But regardless, maybe bin Laden has it figured out. Maybe he's betting that the American People will see this not-so-veiled threat as a challenge. "How dare you try to manipulate us!" would be the reaction and the response would then be an outpouring of support for The President to prove that UBL will not intimidate the United States of America. I have a sick, gut twisting feeling that UBL will be watching somewhere safe tomorrow night and counting on the possibility that whoever wins the White House will unwittingly help him in his cause.