Tuesday, October 10, 2006

Shit.

Well, what the hell else can I say about the developments of the last 48 hours? This is not a time that inspires eloquence. Fear of the worst case scenario, if anything, has a chilling effect on the wordsmith. Turns of phrase are tough to come by when your mind keeps going back to those grainy 50's videos of school kids ducking and covering when the Siren goes off. It's only a matter of time before those public safety productions end up as ironic re-runs on YouTube.
The facts are these: Pyongyang has decided that now is a good time to cash in it's chips and the world community is having itself an old fashioned freak out. This is the real deal and every world leader is waiting for the other shoe to drop. The look of pure confusion mixed with outrage on our own President's face at yesterday's press conference speaks volumes about the fix we're in.
What do you do? Fred Kaplan over at Slate lays out 4 possible scenerios (http://www.slate.com/id/2151216/nav/tap1/), all of which are not so tasty. He mentions first and foremost the possibility of Pyongyang selling off it's Nukes like hotcakes to raise cash after sanctions deprive him of other forms of income.
I have a different take on that particular concept. If we hard sanction North Korea, that is if even China is on board, his government could crumble overnight and there would be a power vacuum. Where do you think the remaining nukes in their hands will end up after the dust settles? We could only HOPE that the DPRK would try to get rid of it's nukes before Kim Jong-Il loses control of his government. With some kind of structure still in place, at least there would be a chance to follow the bouncing warheads. This would not be the case in a situation of post-collapse anarchy. Anyone with access to fissle materiel and the means to contain and/or detonate it would run amok, ending up in the mountains of Afganistan no doubt. We already know that is a fine locale to hide out.
Bush and his idiot approach to foreign policy has essentially painted us into a corner. We can't attack, because that will surely instigate a war with China. We can't sanction because that will, if my posited argument is correct, almost immediately lead to loose nukes. We could continue to sit back and do nothing, but then the Iranians will take that as a brilliant Green Light to go forward with their own "energy" program.
Way to go 43. You've fucked us. Again.

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